A turning point for China’s global influence

Some analysts argue that there may be an unexpected beneficiary of the U.S.–Iran conflict — and it may not be the United States.

A number of geopolitical observers suggest that China could emerge from the crisis with strengthened economic, diplomatic, and strategic influence. The U.S., meanwhile, may face new constraints, while other major players such as Russia and the European Union may see more limited shifts.

At the upcoming summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing, tentatively planned for May 14–16, China may highlight cooperative gestures or potential trade discussions. Yet many experts note that the broader dynamics between the two countries have been evolving in ways that go beyond any single meeting.

Why do some believe China could gain ground?

When the U.S. sought China’s help in encouraging Iran to negotiate and in easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, it signaled how central China has become to global diplomacy and crisis management.

There have been unverified claims from U.S. intelligence sources about Chinese weapons shipments to Iran, though these remain unconfirmed. Regardless, analysts point out that if the conflict continues, China’s manufacturing capacity and supply chains could give it flexibility that other countries may lack.

China also maintains large strategic reserves that could help cushion the impact of supply disruptions. While China, like many nations, relies on crude oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz, it has built up roughly 1.3 billion barrels of strategic petroleum reserves — an amount that could cover several months of demand.

In renewable energy, China already plays a dominant role in producing wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, and related components. As global markets look for alternatives to volatile fossil fuel prices, China’s existing industrial base positions it to meet much of that demand outside the U.S. The Iran conflict has simply accelerated trends that were already underway.

Fertilizer markets have also been affected, given natural gas’s role in production. China is currently one of the world’s largest fertilizer exporters, giving it potential leverage in a tightening market.

Rare earth minerals — essential for advanced weapons systems, electronics, and electric motors — are another area where China holds significant influence. U.S. supplies have been strained, and China’s near‑monopoly on processing these materials remains a strategic factor.

Beyond commodities, China has been working to expand the use of its currency in global trade. While many experts once believed that any shift away from the U.S. dollar would take decades, the recent increase in oil transactions conducted in yuan has drawn attention as a possible early step toward a more diversified global currency landscape.

Not long ago, many voices in Washington framed the U.S.–China relationship as the defining strategic rivalry of the century. The “Liberation Day” tariffs announced in April 2025 were aimed at reshaping trade flows and reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains.

A year later, the trade tensions have eased, and China’s economic and diplomatic footprint has continued to grow.

As the situation in Iran eventually stabilizes, many analysts believe China could emerge with an even more prominent role on the world stage — potentially standing alongside the United States as one of the most influential global powers.

 

Hilliard MacBeth

 

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson Wealth Limited or its affiliates. Richardson Wealth Limited is a subsidiary of iA Financial Corporation Inc. and is not affiliated with James Richardson & Sons, Limited. Richardson Wealth is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited and Richardson Wealth Limited is a licensed user of the mark. Richardson Wealth Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.